Nigeria’s Economy Doing Poorly – IMF

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut the growth projections made for Nigeria to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent, saying the country’s economy is doing poorly.

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Deputy Director at IMF’s Research Department, made this known recently while addressing journalists at the ongoing annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group in Bali, Indonesia.

He said the aggregate growth rate of Africa is being held down by its three largest economies.

The IMF economist identified the three economies as Nigeria, South Africa and Angola.

“The aggregate growth rate for the continent is held down by the fact that the three largest economies are not performing up to their full potential,” he said.

“Nigeria’s growth, 1.9 percent this year; 2.3 next year. South Africa, only 0.8 percent this year. Angola, contracting by 0.1 percent this year. So the aggregate — over three percent this year, is close to four percent next year — despite the largest economies in the continent doing poorly.

“The continent could do much better once these economies are on a more solid footing, particularly South Africa and Nigeria because they are really large and affect a number of countries in their neighbourhood.”

Previous World Economic Outlook Report

In the World Economic Outlook report released in July this year, the Bretton Woods institution had projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2.3 percent in 2019.

In the October edition of the report, IMF cut the growth projections for 2018 to 1.9 percent.

“In Nigeria and Angola, tighter monetary policy and moderation in food price increases contributed to tapering inflation. In Nigeria, inflation is projected to fall to 12.4 percent in 2018, from 16.5 percent in 2017, and to rise to 13.5 percent in 2019,” the report read.

The World Bank recently cut its growth projections for Nigeria by 0.2%, citing reduction in oil production levels, and contraction in the agricultural sector, following the herder-farmer crisis.

Cuts global growth to 3.7 %

Meanwhile, in own speech, the IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, Mr. Maurice Obstfeld, at a press briefing on the World Economic Outlook (WEO) in Bali, Indonesia, yesterday said the Fund has cut global growth projection to 3.7 per cent for this year and next year.

The new projection is a marginal reduction of the 3.9 per cent projection of last April’s World Economic Outlook report.

Mr. Obstfeld said, “The latest World Economic Outlook report projects that global growth will remain steady over this year and next, at last rate of 3.7 percent. This growth exceeds that achieved in any of the years between 2012 and 2016, and it occurs as many economies have reached or are nearing full employment and as earlier deflation fears have dissipated.

“Thus, policy-makers still have an excellent opportunity to build resilience and implement growth-enhancing reforms.

“Last April, at the time of our last World Economic Outlook, the world economy broad-based momentum led us to project a 3.9 percent growth rate for both this year and next.

“Considering developments since then, however, that number now appears overoptimistic. Rather than rising, growth has plateaued at 3.7 percent.”

– AllAfrica

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